Photos: Tennessee Athletics
Before we get into the season outlook, a quick note. Tennessee lost one of its own. Dolly Parton meant something real to this state. Rest in peace, Queen.
Now that Tennessee has a starting quarterback and the depth chart is mostly settled, it’s time to look at how this season could actually go.
I want to talk about the best realistic case for this team and the version that goes completely off the rails.
Let’s get the bad out of the way first.
Worst Case
Tennessee finishes 6-6 and Heupel is squarely on the hot seat heading into 2027.
For that to happen, the two biggest unknowns have to go south in an awful way.
First is the quarterback play. Brandon has to struggle as a first time starter and MacIntyre doesn’t stabilize things either. That’s not a prediction, but it’s a real possibility with young quarterbacks. You can like what you see in camp all you want. You still don’t know how a guy will react when 90,000 people are in the stands every week and the last real game action he had was in high school. The game can speed up fast. Defenses start stacking the box and daring you to throw over them, and if you can’t, the whole offense stalls.
Second is the defense looking like a classic first year Jim Knowles unit that can’t get consistent pressure and struggles against the run. If that happens, you’re playing from behind more often than not, and a young quarterback doesn’t get the help he needs. The defensive line sets the tone in both areas and that can’t be stressed enough. I personally think the D line will be fine, and I wrote more about why HERE, but if they aren’t, games that feel like should be wins against teams like Arkansas and Auburn suddenly become problems. Plus, the better teams on the schedule will gash you. The entire SEC has a habit of doing so when you can’t stop the run.
Even in that version, the talent on this roster will still get them to six wins. The offensive line and skill players can score on weaker teams, and the defense can get just enough stops. But 6-6 would feel like a failure for where this program is supposed to be. Offseason chatter will be in a place where none of us wants it to be.
Best Case
Tennessee goes 10-2 and gets back to the playoff for the second time in three years.
That requires the opposite of the worst case problems. Brandon plays like a freshman star, and the defensive line has enough guys step up to be difference makers. But those two things alone aren’t enough.
Injuries have to stay mostly under control. You can’t lose key pieces like Daevin Hobbs or Braylon Staley for long stretches and just shrug it off as next man up. Depth matters and you better have it in year six, but some players aren’t easily replaced without a real drop off. Navigating a nine game SEC schedule and a road trip to Georgia Tech requires health at the important spots.
The schedule also has to cooperate. Some of the loaded teams on paper need to be more human than advertised. Texas needs to struggle on the road again. LSU needs to look like more of a paper tiger than a finished product. Alabama needs to have trouble finding answers on the offensive line and quarterback. Marcel Reed at Texas A&M needs to keep putting the ball on the ground. Tennessee also has a habit of running into a mid tier SEC team that overachieves and turns into a dogfight. For a true overachieving season, those games have to stay manageable.
When the quarterback play is strong, the defense takes a step forward, the key guys stay healthy, and a couple of those paper tigers don’t fully click, this roster has the talent to get to 10 wins.
Where the Vols Land
Vegas has the number at 7.5. That feels about right. Seven, eight, or nine wins is the most likely range. I lean toward the higher end of that, but none of those numbers would shock me. Records like that will be the new reality for most teams after the SEC decided that the best interest of the conference is to go to nine games. Why they thought that is a mystery that I do not have the answers to.
10-2 would light the fan base up and have Knoxville rocking. 6-6 would feel like a gut punch and put real heat on this staff.
Either way, we won’t be waiting long to find out which direction this thing is headed.